Paul Millsap is making his case

// February 2nd, 2010 // Player Profile

Paul Millsap continues to surprise us. But why? He started getting good minutes as a rookie (which is rare for a rookie on a Jerry Sloan-coached team, just ask Sundiata Gaines). His minutes and production increased year to year pushing other backup F/Cs to the bench (Araujo, Collins…by the way, Paul, have we thanked you for that?). Beginning last year Millsap started showing us he had outside game too as his soft touch jumper developed reliability and range (hey Sap, would you mind coaching Brewer on that?). Then with Boozer out last year Millsap became the starter and showed us his potential by putting together great numbers – starter’s numbers.

One thing that we noticed while watching Millsap last year while he started was that, while he was performing admirably as a starter, the Jazz weren’t necessarily a much better team with Millsap at the power forward position in comparison to Boozer. Perhaps the Jazz needed a bit of time to gel with Millsap as the starter and it’s hard to ignore the 12 game win streak we put together in February and March of last year. Sadly, that win streak has been easy to forget when the Jazz fell apart at the end of the season and barely snagged the 8 spot for the playoffs. Carlos Boozer returned to action last year around the same time as that implosion. Coincidence? Probably not. Boozer did not play well by anyone’s standards at the end of the regular season. We almost forget that he played very well in the Playoff series against the Lakers though since most of us had already declared the season a loss when we fell to the 8 seed.

As we all remember, the Jazz matched the offer that Portland extended to Millsap despite Carlos Boozer decision to remain in Utah for the last year of his contract. Millsap went from being the league’s biggest bargain of a salary less than $1 million dollars to making the money he deserved in a 4 year $32 million dollar deal. Many Jazz fans wondered what the team chemistry would be like having both Boozer and Millsap around but why? They have played together for 4 seasons now after all. The one thing we know to expect from Paul is that he’ll go to work and play hard in every game, never complain, and do what is asked of him.

For the first half of the season his numbers were a bit disappointing compared to last year. On the surface, it’s hardly a fair comparison considering that Millsap started for about half of the season. Something interesting to note, when we look deeper into Millsap’s production, are his per 40-minute numbers as a starter and as a reserve. Last season he was incredibly more productive on a per 40-minute basis as a starter. Meaning…he shot a better percentage, rebounded better, scored more points, and had a better PER per 40 minutes of play when he started. As a reserve, all those stats were noticeably worse. Simply put, Millsap plays better and more efficiently as a starter. In reality, it wasn’t a surprise that we saw a drop in his numbers the first half of this season because he was coming off the bench.

Fast forward to the last 5 games (2 of which he started with Boozer out) and check out his stats: 21 points on 63% from the field, 80% from FT, 9 rebounds including 3 offensive boards, 3 assists, and a steal and block per game. Those are great numbers. Just to give you an idea of how good those are let’s compare Millsap to Pau Gasol. Before doing so, I fully recognize that an entire season’s stats and the last 5 game’s stats are a different story and that Millsap and Pau Gasol’s styles are fundamentally different. Gasol has spent the majority of his career as the #1 or #2 option on a team (Millsap has never been the #1, #2, or the #3). During Gasol’s 4 season he was averaging 18 points on 51% shooting, 77% from the line, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal per game. I don’t think there are any Paul Millsap fans out there who think that Sap can’t put together Gasol-like numbers all season. We know he can. Maybe he can do better.

Well that brings up the issue from last year. Are the Jazz better now with Millsap starting at the 4? A lot has changed in a year. During these past few games that Millsap has started he has certainly proved his versatility and worth by being a force on offense and defense. I think that if the Jazz could find a reliable backup at the power forward spot (I hear Brandon Bass isn’t happy in Orlando) they would be an excellent team. As it turns out, Boozer’s contract expires this year and with how well Millsap is playing I don’t think Kevin O’Conner or any Jazz fans are fearing a frontcourt without Booze with how well Millsap has played lately (especially as a starter). Has Millsap made his case that he should be a starter?

I won’t be surprised. There are a lot of scenarios that could be played out in the next 6 months. The Jazz could keep Boozer and resign him. They could trade him before the deadline. They could work a sign-and-trade this summer and pick up a few other players. They could trade Millsap for some excellent talent. Not a single one of these scenarios would truly be a surprise because the Jazz don’t operate like other organizations. I just hope whatever they do makes us better.