Upper Bowl Jazz Fan

Jazz trade Ronnie Brewer to the Memphis Grizzlies

// February 18th, 2010 // 6 Comments » // Player Profile, Trades

Today was the deadline for trades in the NBA and it was quite a busy day around the league.  One of the more minor trades (compared to everything else that happened) was Ronnie Brewer heading to the Memphis Grizzlies.  Who did the Jazz get in return?  Well…the better question is what did the Jazz get in return?  The Grizzlies gave the Jazz a conditional 1st round draft pick.  The first year the Jazz could exercise that pick is 2011 but it is top-14 protected.  Meaning that if the Grizzlies draw the 14th pick or better they retain it.  In 2012 it is top-12 protected.  In 2013 it is top-10 protected.  In 2014 and 2015 it is top-9 protected.  If it goes past then and the Jazz have not been able to use that pick (which is extremely unlikely) then the Jazz receive “cash considerations.”  The Jazz will almost certainly be able to use that pick in the coming years because the Grizzlies, as a team, have gotten better and better and should be in the runnings for the playoffs for the next few years which means their record won’t be bad enough to get that high of a pick.  Sounds like a heck of a deal right?  Do you think they could have thrown in a ’72 Datsun like when they traded Pau Gasol away?

Was it a salary dump?

Jazz fans everywhere are crying foul and calling it an outrage that Kevin O’Conner got rid of Ronnie Brewer in a “salary dump” and got nothing in return.  This is NOT the case…at least not the primary reason.  For the record, if this had truly been a salary dump the Jazz would have figured out a way to get rid of another $2-ish million dollars to get under the tax.  Remember, if the Jazz got under the tax, not only would they not pay the league the penalty, they would receive approximately $4.5 million from the league for being under the tax.  They did not do this, however, illustrating that this was not, primarily, a financial move.

Brewer is a restricted free agent this summer which means a team can make him an offer and if the Jazz (well, the Grizzlies now) don’t match it then Brewer can join that team.  I believe the Jazz organization had discussed it and decided that if Brewer were to be made an offer (which would have almost been a certainty) they would have decided not to match it.  Basically, they decided that they were willing to let him leave the team this summer.

That being said, if Brewer were to have left in the summer the Jazz would have received nothing in return.  So the Jazz were faced with a choice when Memphis made an offer.  ”Do we keep Brewer for the rest of the season and have him contribute to our success or do we let Brewer walk in the summer and get nothing out of it?”  As any Jazz fan knows, there are a lot of wings vying for playing time: Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, CJ Miles, and Wesley Matthews.  So it’s not like if they traded him we would be left with a gaping hole at the 2/3 with no one to fill it.  So, the Jazz decided that getting something as opposed to nothing was the best move.  They had good reason too.

On Defense

On the plus side, Brewer is an above average defender with long arms and a knack for getting steals.  He’s not an elite defender but does a decent job against the Kobes and Wades of the NBA.  His defensive efficiency rating is better than average.  (more below)

Will we miss his messed up looking shot?

On offense

I think he’s been a bit of a disappointment.  He leads the league for all shooting guards in field goal percentage but only because he gets the majority of his shots around the rim.

The league average for FG% around the rim is nearly 61% while Brewer posts a 65% average…which is great!  However, that’s the only area in which Ronnie Brewer shoots a good percentage.  In short range shots (less than 10 feet) Brewer shoots a putrid 27% compared to the league average of 44%.  In mid range shots (10-15 feet) Brewer shoots 27%, again, while the rest of the league averages 40%.  On long 2′s, Brewer records a better, but less than impressive, 35% which is still below the NBA average of 40%.  As a shooting guard he has never shot better than 30% from 3 (which is awful) and this year is the same.  Oh, and this year he is shooting 63% from the free throw line…I mentioned he’s a shooting guard right?

All those stats mean that Brewer is a poor shooting guard.  He is a phenomenal slashing and cutting guard.  However, last year in the playoffs, we saw the Lakers dare Ronnie B to shoot the ball from mid to long range and he came up short so often.  While he hurts defenses with his ability to cut to the rim and finish there he hurts the Jazz with his awful shooting.  Shouldn’t the Jazz demand a bit more out of, um, a shooting guard?  No one expects Fesenko to make mid to long range jumpers because he’s a post up player.

The Jazz, undoubtedly, looked at this same data, saw that over the 4 years he’s been with us that there hasn’t been much improvement (in fact, his shooting percentages have decrease mildly the last 2 years) and felt like it wasn’t worth it to keep Brewer for two or three times as much as he’s making this year.  His salary this year is $2.7 million dollars.  This summer, an offer of $5-7 million/year seems likely to be headed Brewer’s way.  If there was no luxury tax or salary issues with the Jazz I would imagine they would have been happy to keep him.  That is, of course, not the case and, while we might forget that, the Jazz are trying to make money in addition to winning a championship.

Now What?

Now there is more playing time available for our other wings, namely Wesley Matthews.  So, it’s been nearly 4 years and we bid Ronnie Brewer farewell.  He has been an integral member of the Jazz.  Many have complained that we shouldn’t be trading away a 3-year starter for so little but it comes down to this: is Ronnie Brewer a starting shooting guard on a championship team?  Sayonara Brewer!

Paul Millsap is making his case

// February 2nd, 2010 // No Comments » // Player Profile

Paul Millsap continues to surprise us.  But why?  He started getting good minutes as a rookie (which is rare for a rookie on a Jerry Sloan-coached team, just ask Sundiata Gaines).  His minutes and production increased year to year pushing other backup F/Cs to the bench (Araujo, Collins…by the way, Paul, have we thanked you for that?).  Beginning last year Millsap started showing us he had outside game too as his soft touch jumper developed reliability and range (hey Sap, would you mind coaching Brewer on that?).  Then with Boozer out last year Millsap became the starter and showed us his potential by putting together great numbers – starter’s numbers.

One thing that we noticed while watching Millsap last year while he started was that, while he was performing admirably as a starter, the Jazz weren’t necessarily a much better team with Millsap at the power forward position in comparison to Boozer.  Perhaps the Jazz needed a bit of time to gel with Millsap as the starter and it’s hard to ignore the 12 game win streak we put together in February and March of last year.  Sadly, that win streak has been easy to forget when the Jazz fell apart at the end of the season and barely snagged the 8 spot for the playoffs.  Carlos Boozer returned to action last year around the same time as that implosion.  Coincidence?  Probably not.  Boozer did not play well by anyone’s standards at the end of the regular season.  We almost forget that he played very well in the Playoff series against the Lakers though since most of us had already declared the season a loss when we fell to the 8 seed.

As we all remember, the Jazz matched the offer that Portland extended to Millsap despite Carlos Boozer decision to remain in Utah for the last year of his contract.  Millsap went from being the league’s biggest bargain of a salary less than $1 million dollars to making the money he deserved in a 4 year $32 million dollar deal.  Many Jazz fans wondered what the team chemistry would be like having both Boozer and Millsap around but why?  They have played together for 4 seasons now after all.  The one thing we know to expect from Paul is that he’ll go to work and play hard in every game, never complain, and do what is asked of him.

For the first half of the season his numbers were a bit disappointing compared to last year.  On the surface, it’s hardly a fair comparison considering that Millsap started for about half of the season.  Something interesting to note, when we look deeper into Millsap’s production, are his per 40-minute numbers as a starter and as a reserve.  Last season he was incredibly more productive on a per 40-minute basis as a starter.  Meaning…he shot a better percentage, rebounded better, scored more points, and had a better PER per 40 minutes of play when he started.  As a reserve, all those stats were noticeably worse.  Simply put, Millsap plays better and more efficiently as a starter.  In reality, it wasn’t a surprise that we saw a drop in his numbers the first half of this season because he was coming off the bench.

Fast forward to the last 5 games (2 of which he started with Boozer out) and check out his stats: 21 points on 63% from the field, 80% from FT, 9 rebounds including 3 offensive boards, 3 assists, and a steal and block per game.  Those are great numbers.  Just to give you an idea of how good those are let’s compare Millsap to Pau Gasol.  Before doing so, I fully recognize that an entire season’s stats and the last 5 game’s stats are a different story and that Millsap and Pau Gasol’s styles are fundamentally different.  Gasol has spent the majority of his career as the #1 or #2 option on a team (Millsap has never been the #1, #2, or the #3).  During Gasol’s 4 season he was averaging 18 points on 51% shooting, 77% from the line, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal per game.  I don’t think there are any Paul Millsap fans out there who think that Sap can’t put together Gasol-like numbers all season.  We know he can.  Maybe he can do better.

Well that brings up the issue from last year.  Are the Jazz better now with Millsap starting at the 4?  A lot has changed in a year.  During these past few games that Millsap has started he has certainly proved his versatility and worth by being a force on offense and defense.  I think that if the Jazz could find a reliable backup at the power forward spot (I hear Brandon Bass isn’t happy in Orlando) they would be an excellent team.  As it turns out, Boozer’s contract expires this year and with how well Millsap is playing I don’t think Kevin O’Conner or any Jazz fans are fearing a frontcourt without Booze with how well Millsap has played lately (especially as a starter).  Has Millsap made his case that he should be a starter?

I won’t be surprised.  There are a lot of scenarios that could be played out in the next 6 months.  The Jazz could keep Boozer and resign him.  They could trade him before the deadline.  They could work a sign-and-trade this summer and pick up a few other players.  They could trade Millsap for some excellent talent.  Not a single one of these scenarios would truly be a surprise because the Jazz don’t operate like other organizations.  I just hope whatever they do makes us better.

Wesley Matthews’s contract is guaranteed

// January 6th, 2010 // No Comments » // Player Profile

Some good news came to the rookie, Wesley Matthews, that his contract would be guaranteed through the rest of this season.  If the Jazz play their cards right, hopefully they’ll lock him up for a few years at the league minimum for rookies and we’ll have the NBA’s best bargain on our hands (much as Paul Millsap was).  This provides a great opportunity to talk about how great of a player Matthews is.

For the ’09-10 season, Matthews will earn $457,588.  As of right now, his contract is only for this year but just like any other rookie the Jazz will be able to sign him to a multi-year contract before any other team can.

Matthews went undrafted in the 2009 draft after playing a full 4 years at Marquette.  He was invited to play for the Kings and Jazz in the summer league.  With injuries to CJ Miles and Kyle Korver the Jazz felt like the needed some added depth in the wing positions and signed Matthews.  In very non-typical Jerry Sloan style Matthews made the starting lineup very quickly.  Matthews began contributing almost immediately with some of his more memorable performances against Cleveland and Philadelphia early in the season.

In the Jazz’ continued quest for better defense, they have adopted an individual grading system based on defensive performance for every player.  The Jazz haven’t been quiet in mentioning that Wesley Matthews has continually been the top (or near to) defender for the Jazz.  His size requires him to defend some of the leagues best players like Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, J.R. Smith, Joe Johnson, and a lot more.  He has performed admirably against some of these great players, and this is his first year.  I’m excited to think of his progression and what he is capable of.  I’ve heard some say that he is undersized for his position but he is about the same size as Bruce Bowen or Kobe Bryant and both have been lauded as some of the best defenders of the last decade.

Offensively he has a number of weapons that have a lot of room to grow.  He can catch and shoot, he has decent dribbling skills, he can create his own shot and is surprisingly good at getting to the rim.  Kyle Korver can only make a claim to one of those skills and he hasn’t even done the one very well this year.  Sometimes Matthews shot selection can be better but that is a very typical rookie characteristic and most (if not all) rookies improve with time….except CJ Miles that is.  I have seen little improvement in his selection and he’s been in the league 5 years now.  Clearly I’m high on Wesley Matthews but, realistically, how high is his ceiling?

The interesting thing will be to look towards the next few seasons because the Jazz have some decisions to make at the wing.  Kyle Korver’s contract expires this season and I have a hard time believing the Jazz will bring him back considering he’s a one-trick pony.  Ronnie Brewer will be a restricted free agent this summer and he very well could get some offers in the $6 million/year range.  We’re on the hook to CJ for $3.7M for 2 years after this season BUT the Jazz have a team option on him after next season which I’m praying, to the basketball gods, the Jazz exercise.  Considering that we could lock up Wesley Matthews for very cheap for a few years it seems like we could reduce our logjam at the wing position by letting Korver and maybe CJ or Brewer walk.  I, personally, like a lineup with Matthews at the 2 and Brewer at the 3.  Given the Jazz’ financial situation it might be tough to match an offer that Brewer will likely receive this summer.

For now, I hope that Matthews starts getting his minutes back since CJ and Korver have been gratiously taking them.

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Will the Jazz miss Matt Harpring?

// December 28th, 2009 // No Comments » // Player Profile

So Matt Harpring is basically retiring because of injuries.  He hasn’t officially retired yet but is definitely not playing this year.  But let’s be honest…he’s done.  Some have mused that the Jazz will miss his toughness on the court.  Really?  What exactly did he bring that can’t be replicated from someone else?  Yes, Harpring was a physical basketball player.  His position is small forward which gives him the assignment of guarding some of the best wing players in the league.  If any of these players have a decent post-up game then I know we’ll have a tough time guarding them.  But let’s consider who some of the best wing players are right now: Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Brandon Roy, Vince Carter, Danny Granger, Ben Gordon, Carmelo Anthony, etc.  Most, if not all, of these players do not have a decent post-up game.  Kobe is the one who stands out who has been playing more from the post.  Otherwise, these players are spot-up shooters or great off the dribble.  Can Harpring keep up with these players?  We all know he’s not all that quick on his feet but he is a big body right?  That most likely means that when someone tries to blow by him he gets a body on them and most likely picks up a blocking foul.  Can you really see Harpring guarding Melo or Bron or Durant this season?  No way, he’d be worse on defense than CJ Miles who is, at least, 37 years younger.

Will we miss his offense?  I definitely think that very few people can come around that screen and hit the foul line jumper with as high a percentage as Harpring.  However, what else does he have in his repertoire?  My friends and I used to have a joke that Harp would miss a wide open layup almost every single game and it so often proved to be true.  Ever see him make a dunk?  Block a shot?  Or jump higher than 6 inches?  So he’s got that one shot, the foul-line jumper, and….and that’s about it?  Over the past 3 seasons he has gone 15 of 51 total from 3 point range so it’s not like he’s a floor spacer or can really threaten from outside.  He’s not a good spot-up shooter either.  Plus in that time he committed around 1-2 turnovers in 20 minutes per game.  Considering that the Jazz generally are close to leading the league in turnovers we don’t really need more from someone who plays so few minutes.

So who is he most like on the Jazz?  I’m going to suggest Millsap.  Harp is 6’7, 230 lbs.  Millsap is “listed” at 6’8 but is really more like 6’7 and 250 lbs.  Millsap has an array of offensive moves and he’s only getting more versatile.  He is starting to be able to create his own shot from mid to close range, has a good fallaway jumper, is getting better and better at the midrange jumper, can finish w/ the left or right hand, HE CAN DUNK, doesn’t have an outside game (there’s a tie)…etc.  Millsap 4, Harpring 1.  On defense he is a better rebounder, he can block shots, can’t guard perimeter players (that’s awash), can defend the post better, etc.  Score = Millsap 3, Harpring 0.    Final score?  Millsap 7, Harpring 1.

Will the Jazz miss Harpring?  With Millsap around, not at all.  Even without Millsap?  Not really.  He had some great years here but they are long past.  His future lies at the NBA studios as a commentator…which looks like a good gig for him.  Good luck Matty

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